Value bets — best price beats market consensus

How the value edge is calculated

Every bookmaker bakes a margin into their decimal prices — the implied probabilities for the three outcomes (home / draw / away) add up to more than 100%, with the excess being the book's expected profit on a balanced book. We strip that margin per source by dividing each implied probability by the sum, producing three "fair" probabilities that add to exactly 1.

We then take the median fair probability across all sources that priced a given fixture — median resists a single outlier source skewing the consensus. The edge for an outcome is bestDecimal × consensus − 1. Above 0 means the best available price gives a positive expected return on the consensus assumption; we surface picks at 5% edge or higher.

The edge isn't a guarantee — it depends on the consensus being a fair estimate of the true probability, and four sources is a narrow consensus. Sharp lines (Pinnacle, Sportingbet) are missing here and would tighten the read. Stake responsibly and don't chase variance.